Monday, August 18, 2008

NYU professor of economics and the upcoming US recession

While overall this guy might have a point it is hard to tell. His blog reads too much like Cold Reading (see this site) where people remember the "hits" or successful predictions and don't remember the ones that missed. He also uses a number of confusion points (i.e. acronyms that have no meaning) so without extensive analysis the layperson can't confirm his statements or not.

I'm an NYU alumni so this isn't like I don't like the guy. I just think it is more FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) until he can write in such a way that it makes sense to all of us and not just a bunch of academics. Or we can wait for his predictions to come true but I'm not convinced. Europe and the UK have long endured considerably higher petrol prices and their economies have adjusted accordingly. While the credit crisis is a crisis how real are all the numbers?

RGE - New York Times Article on Nouriel Roubini as “Dr. Doom”
The article is a very friendly and sympathetic portrait of my views. I would take issue only with the characterization of myself as being a “perma-bear” or “perpetual pessimist”. For one thing I ended up a realist rather than a pessimist about the current economic and financial crisis; things are turning out even worse than I initially predicted.

No comments: