Dow needs to cross 7500

So looks like we bottomed around 6666.  Since then it has kept going up.  Lets see what happens here.

Dow, well, not good.

Back in Oct 2008 I said that if the Dow went below 7500 that we have the real possibility of seeing Dow 3000.  I'm now watching the Dow having a hard time staying at 6900.  This is not good.  I just don't see the Dow getting back over 7500 now until it hits bottom and that bottom is probably somewhere between 3000 & 4000.  Hopefully not below 3000. 

Why video blogs (i.e. vlogs) & posts should provide transcripts

I came across this web site and completely agree that all video blogs & posts should provide a transcript for their talk.  The reason for me is simple.  Text is more accessible than video.  I can read text anywhere especially when I'm waiting for an airplane or on one.  Video is more hassle.  I need to don headphones so I don't disturb others around me.  And I have to pay attention which is difficult if I'm trying to watch a little in the concourse then pause and get on a plane and watch the rest an hour later.  If I'm trying to follow a train of thought (unlike a movie) then this format doesn't work (for me). 

Micro Persuasion: Why Text Remains King of the Web

My friend Robert Scoble has a problem. He produces terrific videos on technology companies for Fast Company. They're a little long sometimes, but they're almost always interesting.
So what's Scoble's problem? Well a lot. The videos don't generate a lot of in-bound links from bloggers, conversations on Twitter or mentions on aggregators like Techmeme. "None of my 1,000+ videos has ever made it to Techmeme," Scoble said.

One thing that can help bring the economy back is a payroll tax holiday. Eliminate all payroll taxes on families earning less than $500,000. For at least a year. When the tax holiday would end is something that needs to be examined on a weekly basis and the reintroduction of the payroll tax has to be phased in at a rate of 10% rate per week at best, it could be at 10% per month.

But we have to put lots of money into people's hands so they have money available to spend. President Bush had his failed $600 one time shots that did little to help the economy. Others say we should have tax cuts but those cuts will be marginal at best and not put enough extra cash into people's hands to spend.

Lets give everyone a big boost reason to spend money, let them have money to spend.

Invest in America's future - Education

The US lags the rest of the world in educating scientists, engineers, mathematicians, computer experts, etc.  The easiest way to resolve this is to make tuition free who goes into one of the math, engineering or science disciplines.  What about the psych and English lit majors?  What about them?  We have plenty of those.  If we're going to get our country going in this economy then we need to educate the people in the fields that will get our economy on the right track. 

Sametime wouldn't start for me

I'm recovering from my hard drive failures.  Sametime wouldn't start today.  The splash screen came up and that was it.  I found the following information:

Sametime shows the splash screen but does not start

Delete the file: C:\Documents and Settings\Administrator\IBM\RCP\Sametime\.metadata\plugins\com.ibm.collaboration.realtime.imhub\shelfmemento.xml and then start Sametime again.

Which solved my problem!

I don't always get a title line when I go to post new posts to this blog. Weird.

If you have trouble getting ATT Network Client to connect into your corporate network and you use a cellular GSM ATT pcmcia card to connect to the network DISABLE optimization. I was not able to log in recently with a new hard disk build and turns out the new version of the ATT communications manager software optimization is somehow interfering with the VPN login.

Master Inventor

On Oct 1, 2008 IBM recognized me as a master inventor. 

I don't read a lot of blogs

But this is one of my favorite ones.

Stevey's Blog Rants

If you're a touch-typist, you know the profile I'm talking about. It's dirty. People don't talk about dirty secrets in polite company. Illtyperacy is the bastard incest child hiding in the industry's basement. I swear, people get really uncomfortable talking about it. We programmers act all enlightened on Reddit, but we can't face our own biggest socio-cultural dirty secret.

Interesting stuff!

A very interesting story. 

Are the F.B.I.s Probabilities About DNA Matches Crazy? - Freakonomics - Opinion - New York Times Blog

The men matched at 9 of the 13 locations on chromosomes, or loci, commonly used to distinguish people.

The [Federal Bureau of Investigation] estimated the odds of unrelated people sharing those genetic markers to be as remote as 1 in 113 billion. But the mug shots of the two felons suggested that they were not related: One was black, the other white.

Alex doesn't think pending home sales is a good metric to follow

In my opinion this metric is a useless metric to follow.  Pending home sales are not a forecast because they are so easily bloated by ineligible home buyers.  So any down turn can look dramatic but means nothing.  This number could have dropped 90% and it would have as little meaning.

July pending home sales down 3.2% - Sep. 9, 2008

The Pending Home Sales Index fell to 86.5, after gaining 5.8% in June, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). It now stands 6.7% below July 2007's reading of 92.8.

Finally we're getting somewhere

I think this is fabulous news. If we can finally prove there are dimensions outside of the 3rd then the next problem will be to figure out how to communicate with whatever it is over on the other side. Assuming there is anything over there to communicate with. Arguably there is because what is the point of having another dimension if nothing is in it? Although it could all just be inert but I'd argue the fact that we exist lends credibility that something alive is in the 4th or 5th dimension.

Although time itself is going to be a problem to get anything done. You see, though we live through multiple decades, centuries and millennium our existence in the other dimension is just a fleeting moment. By the time we get a communication out there we will have ceased to exist as our time will have passed. In fact, out time is so brief over there they may have not realize we existed before we are gone.

But at least we are starting to look.

Super-smasher targets massive mystery - LHC- msnbc.com

For years, string theorists have noted that their equations come out better if they assume that the universe has nine or 10 spatial dimensions instead of the three we can perceive. The LHC could provide the first evidence of those extra dimensions: Some theorists say the collisions could produce anomalously heavy particles, suggesting that part of their momentum was going into the extradimensional realm. Harvard physicist Lisa Randall estimates that the LHC could nail down the evidence for extra dimensions in five years.

No need for speed

An interesting article that points to statistics (and we know how statistics lie) that show that red light cameras do not work. Comments at Bruce's blog (and I have great respect for Bruce) brings up a bunch of people complaining of "hidden taxes" because they can't stay within the stated traffic limits or follow the law at intersections.

Sorry folks. You can complain till the cows come home. Traffic accidents is one of the biggest killers in the USA. Bigger than HIV or breast cancer. Yet you drive on any highway in Illinois and see people speeding in construction zones even though it is well marked that speed cameras may be in use. This is nothing more than complete disregard not only for the construction zone workers but also other people driving in the construction zone. An accident in the construction zone is a big problem because there is often uneven pavement, narrow lanes denoted with cement pillars which means trying to avoid an accident being caused by someone else much more difficult. So even if there isn't any construction going on while you're driving in the construction zone there are reasons you need to keep your speed in check.

People don't stop at stop signs so accidents happen. Speeding gets children run over in the streets. I've seen both problems within one block of my home in the last 12 months alone.

I for one will be glad to see automated traffic enforcement rolled out en masse. I won't have problems because I drive as we're supposed to, within the law. For those that lose their house because they choose to gamble and lose money then so be it.

Schneier on Security: Red Light Cameras Don't Work

Red Light Cameras Don't Work

More news on the American Eagle fiasco at ORD

Pilots on numerous boards say that airplane doors do not lock because they are supposed to be openable in an emergency. That makes more sense. So even if the aircraft door was closed the inspector could have opened the door. Logic is missing here.

Likewise, I'm not sure what difference it makes if the jet bridge is connected to an aircraft or not. At ORD one requires both a swipe card AND a PIN they have to punch in at the door to gain access to the jet bridge. If anyone who is authorized to be on the jet bridge is there then what difference does it make door open or not? Now if someone unauthorized gained access to the jet bridge then that is a different problem and still does not matter whether or not the jet bridge is connected to the plane or not. Because, as the TSA has proven, they could enter the plane using the TAT probes as unauthorized hand grips which they then broke thus rendering the aircraft dangerous to the flying public.

Notice that this articles makes no mention of the fact that the TSA inspector rendered the aircraft unflyable when he damaged the TAT probes.

American Eagle lags on safety, TSA says -- chicagotribune.com

"In at least one photo I saw, the jet bridge was connected to the aircraft and the aircraft door was left open," Montenegro said. "The inspector simply walked inside."

TSA damages 14 American Eagle airplanes?

This one really takes the cake. Affected 40 regional commuter flights. Boy, am I glad I wasn't flying this week!

ABC News: TSA Snafu Grounds Nine Planes at O'Hare Field

TSA agents, "are now doing things to our aircraft that may put our lives, and the lives of our passengers at risk."

NYU professor of economics and the upcoming US recession

While overall this guy might have a point it is hard to tell. His blog reads too much like Cold Reading (see this site) where people remember the "hits" or successful predictions and don't remember the ones that missed. He also uses a number of confusion points (i.e. acronyms that have no meaning) so without extensive analysis the layperson can't confirm his statements or not.

I'm an NYU alumni so this isn't like I don't like the guy. I just think it is more FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) until he can write in such a way that it makes sense to all of us and not just a bunch of academics. Or we can wait for his predictions to come true but I'm not convinced. Europe and the UK have long endured considerably higher petrol prices and their economies have adjusted accordingly. While the credit crisis is a crisis how real are all the numbers?

RGE - New York Times Article on Nouriel Roubini as “Dr. Doom”

The article is a very friendly and sympathetic portrait of my views. I would take issue only with the characterization of myself as being a “perma-bear” or “perpetual pessimist”. For one thing I ended up a realist rather than a pessimist about the current economic and financial crisis; things are turning out even worse than I initially predicted.

iPhone & WEP = no DHCP?

Once again I'm home and frustrated that the iPhone isn't connecting to my WiFi network which uses a WEP password. While several have suggested running with security turned off (sorry, ain't happening) or switching to WPA (too many devices would need reconfiguration) neither option was my preferred route.

I decided to search the Apple forums and sure enough it seems the ONLY way to get this working is setting up a static address. So I did that. I think I only have 3 computers/devices using static addresses and plenty of room in the address space for the iPhone.

Now to find Hamachi and VNC for the iPhone! ;-)

Apple - Support - Discussions - Iphone 3g home wireless with password ...

set IP Address to "static".

Hilton Garden Inn, Albany - Medical Center.

I just had what had to be the best bowl of oatmeal outside of my home. The consistency wasn't mush or paste, the oats were whole and chunky. Though the chef here sweetened the oatmeal that was fine by me as I sweeten my oatmeal. No cinnamon but then again when you're getting real oats, and they haven't been overcooked...

So if you ever get the chance to come to Albany book this hotel and enjoy the oatmeal. Caveat... on Monday it was sweet grits which I didn't care much for. But the oatmeal is to die for (if you travel for a living).

Who is broken? iPhone or ATT 3G network?

Unlike a lot of people discussing their problems I have the luxury of personally carrying 3 separate ATT devices; (a) Nokia S75 for work (b) iPhone 3G and (c) Optimax 3G PCMCIA card. Here have been my experiences:

USA: I travel alot so my coverage has literally been coast to coast SFO to LGA and many places in between.

Spotty 3G coverage. Often the Optimax 3G PCMCIA card has varying signal strength from 3-bar 3G to "No Signal." This is sitting still in one place working on my laptop. Very frustrating. At least at my hotel tonight I have solid 4-bar 3G service and have not seen it sway at all. But at the office I'm working at the signal tops out at 3-bars 3G and then goes to "No Signal." Can't get a lot of work done like that. Most 3G service in the US seems to have 2-bars or less so I'm surprised at the good signal here in Albany. I had similar good signal in Chicago a couple of weeks ago.

I have seen the same problems with the varying signal strength on my Nokia & iPhone. I think the problem has to be ATT 3G service but as a Amateur Radio guy I can't understand the violent swings in signal strength unless it is some kind of an equipment problem at the tower (i.e. bad ground on the antenna, faulty transponders, etc).

The Nokia often lets me hear people on calls but they can't always hear me. I have to shut the phone off and turn it on again and then call them back. Then they can hear me. I think this has happened once with the iPhone since I got it last month. I know I have had problems calling other people with the frequent "call back" button displayed after the call was not established.


Europe/Middle East
The 3G signal is dead strong everywhere. I've have been utterly amazed at how strong the 3G signal was. Hardly any dead spots anywhere and didn't see the Nokia exhibiting any issues it had in the US.

Certainly seems like a network issue to me. I guess it is hard to deploy 3G nationwide reliably.


Apple - Support - Discussions - Dropped Calls on the iPhone 3G ...

When I bought the iPhone 3G, I knew that 3G coverage would not be perfect, and I can accept that. The coverage will only get better with time.

Alex's favorite iPhone applications for August

Koi Pond. Run, don't walk, and download this $0.99 application. A koi pond in your iPhone along with lilly pads. While it won't replace the real thing I look forward to the next version. Touch the water and see the fish react.

Stanza is another good one. You can also download books to the iPhone ala Kindle. Granted you can't get the latest books but it is time I've read some of the older ones.

Facebook. Granted it isn't everything I want it to be but it beats SMS'ing my status. Quick and responsive.